British Open Preview

The 141st British Open (Open Championship) gets underway tomorrow night (NZ time) at Royal Lytham & St. Annes, a course with about 200 pot bunkers and rough near 6 inches deep. In other words, missing the fairway here can almost be compared to taking a penalty drop from a water hazard, and i'm sure we will see many players take unplayable lies from the rough of having to hit their bunker shots sideways or even backwards.

Therefore, it would be safe to predict that a composed driver of the golf ball, accompanied by a strong performance in hitting greens - in order to avoid the greenside bunkers - will find himself near the top of the leaderboard during the week. Remember that the difference between hitting the faiway and hitting the green and missing the fairway and hitting the green will be far greater than at other courses where the rough is not as punishing. PGATour Stats show that Graeme McDowell, Jim Fuyrk and Hunter Mahan, and Luke Donald all rank highly in 'percentage of fairways hit' around 68-70%. Francesco Molinari, Ernie Els and Justin Rose also hover around the 68% number on the European Tour.

I am liking the look of Molinari, the Italian who always keeps the same, calm, focused expression on his face no matter what the outcome of the shot is. He led the first three rounds of last week's Scottish Open only to finish second in a playoff to Jeev Milkha Singh, that after finshing stongly the week before that. However, the fact that Molinari did not take control of the Scottish Open on the last day, when conditions deteriorated, might rule him out. But being Italian myself, I hope that is not the case and he continues his efficiency with the driver.

My discussion turns to the "group of best players to have never won a major." Lee Westwood surprisingly is averaging only 58% on both the PGA and European Tours with his driver, but I would not mind seeing him finally capture his maiden major. He has 14 top-10 finishes in majors over a 17 year period, including 6 in his last 10 starts. Current world number 1 Luke Donald has only 6 top 10 finishes in majors over 13 years, which does not reflect his consistency over the past 2 years. Until he wins a major, he will always have his critics regarding holding the number 1 ranking without winning a major. Justin Rose also has 6 top-10s in majors over 14 years and has won a few times over the last two years, and i'm picking him to be up there come Sunday as well. Aussie Adam Scott has 7 top 10s over 12 years. Then there is my favorite golfer, Sergio Garcia. The luck-less (his words and mine) Spaniard has a staggering 17 top-10s in majors over 14 years. If he can finally bring the right mental and putting game, he will win, but has not played a lot recently.

Tiger can take back his world number 1 ranking with a win this week, which would also be his fourth British Open success. I'm not sure if he will win this week, I hope he does, but historically he has struggled in wet 'n' windy conditions at British Open's, and given the length of Royal Lytham, might need to rely on his 3-wood and driver as opposed to his 2-iron like he did with his 2006 triumph at a dry Hoylake course. Tiger's performance at Congressional last month, especially with his driver, gives me confidence that he could win this. It would be great if he did and move within 3 of Jack's all time record.

Now for my game of knockout to find my final prediction:

Graeme McDowell, Jim Fuyrk, Hunter Mahan, Francesco Molinari, Ernie Els, Justin Rose, Lee Westwood, Luke Donald, Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia, Tiger Woods.

Narrowed down to: Francesco Molinari, Justin Rose, Lee Westwood, Luke Donald, Sergio Garcia, Tiger Woods, Hunter Mahan

Narrowed down to: Francesco Molinari, Lee Westwood, Tiger Woods, Justin Rose

Narrowed down to: Tiger Woods, Lee Westwood

Winner: Lee Westwood